3/7/08

Hillary Clinton has received 13,718,73 (53.2%) compared to Barack Obama's 12, 073,346 (46.8%) of the 24,792,219 votes that have been cast so far in primaries and caucuses this year.  This is according to NBC's 3/5/08 figures of primary and caucus votes.  However, this doesn't take into account claims that votes were undercounted in pro-Clinton Hispanic areas.  Yet, Obama has more than 100 more delegates than Clinton.  His support seems to come most from party insiders and, for this reason, he is expected to get the bulk of the super-delegates, giving him the edge to be this year's Democratic nominee.

The Democratic Party needs to be prepared for a major outrage from voters if Obama receives the nomination.  Clinton has received almost 2 million more votes than Obama.  Compare this to almost eight-year outrage over Bush's taking the Presidency after Gore got half a million more popular votes than Bush.  The  difference is four times as large in the case of Clinton and Obama.  If Obama receives the nomination, the outrage from Democratic primary voters would likely be four times as large, particularly from women and Hispanics, who are feeling under attack.  Most of the attacks on Clinton have related to her being a woman and wife.  Obama reintroduced legislation which would have created a slave labor class of immigrant workers and which would have required them to live in concentration camp type communities along the borders without rights or fair wages for their work.  Obama's record has put the Latino community strongly in Clinton's camp.  Environmentalists, opposed to nuclear and coal power (two sources of energy Obama has pushed), have also tended to go with Clinton.

Obama also has shown an inability to win big states.  Big states are Clinton's stronghold.  Ohio and Florida, two states where Obama was on the ballot and lost dramatically to Clinton, were the key electoral states in the 2000 and 2004 elections.  In Florida, Obama ran an ad against Democratic Party rules and still lost, decisively.  Obama also did poorly in California, and New York, two states Democrats have always needed to win the general election.

One factor that hasn't been taken into account is the Rezko effect.  The Antoin Rezko trial was delayed until after the March 4th primaries. It is already known that the Obama-Rezko connection will be a major part of Rezko's defense strategy. Readers can draw their own conclusions, but the judge who delayed the trial worked with Ken Starr on Whitewater and is unlikely to have favored Clinton.  This week, more than a dozen major articles have been published on the Obama connection to the Rezko trial. 

If a credible third party or independent opponent, such as Cynthia McKinney, is on the general election ballot, that opponent could receive a windfall of Democratic votes from disgruntled Democrats.  The nomination is yet to come.  The Democrats often blow general election chances through nominating a liability.  A candidate who loses the popular vote or major states could prove an insurmountable liability.